290132 SE Seminar in Physical Geography (2017W)

This seminar consists of a project that focuses on the analysis of changing risk and how this is used in decision making for risk reduction. The project focuses on a GIS-based analysis during which the participants analyse economic or population risk for a study area that is exposed to various types of natural hazards. Within the project you have to provide relevant information to the stakeholders (e.g. local authorities). They request expert organizations to provide them with hazard maps, asset maps, and vulnerability information, and use this information in risk modelling. They use the results in order to carry out a risk evaluation. Next several alternatives for risk reduction are evaluated. The alternatives are defined, updated hazard maps, assets information and vulnerability information reflecting the consequences of these alternatives are used to reanalyse the risk. The risk reduction is calculated and a cost benefit analysis is carried out to define which alternative is best. Also possible future scenarios are evaluated. Several possible future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change are taken into account, and risk is calculated for various future years. Finally the participants can also analyse how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios (trends of climate change, land use change and population change). It requires to calculate the present risk level, the effect of different risk reduction alternatives, and the overprinting of these on the scenarios. For each of these combinations of alternatives & scenarios new hazard, assets and risk maps need to be made. This seminar consists of a number of introductory lectures, and GIs exercises using Open Source GIS (ILWIS) , but most of the time it consists of project that is carried out in small groups, and where the participants select a specific topic and work this out. The assessment is done through a project report. This course is closely related to the lecture on Multi-hazard risk assessment and the conservatorium Methods for analysing disaster risk assessment, and students are advised to select all three.